LiFePo4 battery is starting to win the ＂turnaround battle＂

Although some of the parties "denial", some are "noncommittal." But behind the continuous "scandals", what can't conceal is the strong momentum of lithium iron phosphate about to "return the king". That huge force is like the lava in a volcanic crater, hot and fierce, and it's urgent to burst out.

 

Industry data shows that in May this year, my country’s single-month output of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 317.3% year-on-year to 8.8GWh, accounting for 63.6% of total power battery output, far exceeding the 5.0GWh of ternary batteries; and from January to May The accumulated output of lithium iron phosphate in my country is 29.9GWh, which has also exceeded the three yuan. Obviously, this is a major signal: for the first time in the past three years, lithium iron phosphate batteries have surpassed ternary batteries in terms of output.

 

Since being surpassed by ternary in 2018, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been declining; at a time, its market share was as low as 12.8%. However, starting from last year, lithium iron phosphate batteries have begun to re-emerge; as downstream demand continues to be strong, the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries has also continued to rise, and in May this year, it achieved a "counterattack against ternary batteries." ".

 

In this regard, Wang Chuanfu, the chairman of BYD, who has been unchanging his original intention of lithium iron phosphate, can’t hide his excitement. Not long ago, he showed off "Versailles" at the China Automobile Forum attended in Chongqing: BYD blade batteries use iron phosphate with their own power. Lithium pulled back from marginalization. Wang Chuanfu also stated that the battery production capacity of the Bishan plant in Chongqing has reached 20GWh and will reach 35GWh by the end of the year.

 

Not long ago, the chairman of CATL, Zeng Yuqun, also stated that CATL will gradually increase the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the next 3 to 4 years, and the production capacity of ternary batteries will gradually decrease.

 

If BYD is suspected of raising the banner for lithium iron phosphate, it is suspected that "Wang Po sells melons", then the "friend businessman" Ningde era also aggressively increased lithium iron phosphate, the signal of this reaction is very obvious: lithium iron phosphate is indeed about to "turn over".

 

Lithium Iron Phosphate "Fragrance"

 

However, from the perspective of installed capacity, the current iron-lithium is still less than the ternary, but it is very close, and the growth rate far exceeds the ternary. Data show that in May this year, the domestic power battery installed capacity was 9.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 178.2%. Among them, ternary batteries totaled 5.2GWh, an increase of 95.3% year-on-year; lithium iron phosphate batteries totaled 4.5GWh, an increase of 458.6% year-on-year. If this momentum is followed, the installed capacity of iron-lithium will exceed the three-yuan capacity is just around the corner.

 

In fact, the iron-lithium counterattack against the ternary has already begun in terms of installed capacity. In 2020, six of the top 10 new energy vehicles sold in the Chinese market have launched lithium iron phosphate versions. Explosive models such as Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. Reflecting on the data, the sales of ternary batteries in the Chinese market in 2020 are 34.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%; the sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries are 30.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%.

 

Under the "hot wind" of lithium iron, the original ternary battery pack was replaced with a LiFePo4 battery at the beginning of this year. Xiaopeng Motors also took the lead in launching the P7 and G3 lithium iron phosphate versions in the "new car-making forces". In addition, Ideal Automobile also stated in an internal letter that future models will cover a price range of 150,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and it is reported that its low-priced models will also use lithium iron phosphate batteries.

 

If you zoom in on the field of view, iron-lithium has already "scented across the sea."

 

In addition to Tesla and Apple, Volkswagen plans to mass-produce "standard batteries" 50% lower than the current cost in 2023, and entry-level models will use lithium iron phosphate batteries. According to industry analysis, at present, mainstream overseas new energy vehicle companies such as Tesla and Daimler have clarified the path of lithium iron phosphate batteries. It is expected that other overseas car companies such as BMW will also choose lithium iron phosphate solutions in their electrification paths. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to achieve global matching.

 

Advance to "dominant position"

 

Avenue to Jane. The logic of lithium iron phosphate counterattack is not complicated. Huachuang Securities pointed out that lithium iron phosphate batteries are being favored by more and more mainstream models. Through technological innovation in the past two years, the current 400-600 km cruising range of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been able to meet the needs of most passenger car owners, and the price is also more advantageous.

 

In terms of energy density, lithium iron phosphate has made up for the shortcomings. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that through a series of improvements such as lithium supplementation, silicon doping and the use of solid-liquid mixed electrolytes, the current energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries can exceed 200Wh/Kg. The volumetric efficiency of battery cells into the system has been increased from 40% to 60%. At the beginning of this year, Guoxuan Hi-Tech unveiled its lithium iron phosphate battery with an energy density of 210Wh/kg, and the single energy density has reached the level of the ternary NCM5 series.

 

In terms of cost advantages, lithium iron phosphate is even more doing its part. According to the research of Huaan Securities, lithium iron phosphate has 55% and 22% cost advantages at the positive electrode and battery cell level, respectively, compared with ternary. Under the current subsidy plan, even taking into account the difference in subsidies, switching from the three yuan to the iron-lithium version will bring about a 9%-11% cost reduction. After the subsidy declines in 2021, this cost reduction effect will be even greater. Significantly.

 

The safety defects of ternary batteries have always been a key issue criticized, and the biggest advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries is high safety. "Because the country's pursuit of PACK energy density has come to an end in 2020, and safety requirements have been raised to a new level, lithium iron phosphate technology has once again stood in the center of the stage because of its good stability, safety and excellent cost advantages." Said Xu Xiaoming, general manager of Chi Technology.

 

According to the research report of Wood Mackenzie, an international market research organization, cost and safety will continue to be the first factors that battery suppliers need to consider in a variety of battery application scenarios. Lithium iron phosphate is expected to surpass the ternary battery to become the dominant electrical energy storage chemical in the next 10 years. After gaining a foothold in the energy storage market, it will gradually occupy a dominant position in the field of electric vehicles.

 

Regardless of performance and cost, in terms of supply stability and safety, lithium iron phosphate materials are extremely abundant and have natural advantages that ternary does not have. In Wang Chuanfu’s words, ternary batteries use a lot of cobalt and nickel. China does not have cobalt and there is very little nickel. China cannot switch from being stuck in oil to being stuck in cobalt and nickel. Batteries that are really used on a large scale cannot be relied on. Rare metals.

 

It is not only that China cannot rely on rare metals, but when electrification is in full swing, the world cannot rely on rare metals.

 

In the future, lithium iron phosphate is destined to shine.